Anticipating a Browns game is a lot like science. It’s not so much about regurgitating facts and figures. The beauty is in asking the right questions. So as the Browns prepare for a critical test from a rival playoff contender, the Indianapolis Colts, here are the key variables I’ll be observing:

Will Tim Couch scale the mountain or dig a hole? The QB’s play throughout the first half will be more important than ever. If he gets rattled, forces throws to KJ for interceptions, and earns the early ire of the home crowd, don’t expect another madcap miracle finish. However, if he manages to keep the Colts’ speed-rushing linemen and suspect secondary off-balance with his cadence, quick-hitting accuracy, and varied pass distribution, the momentum toward the goal line and the playoffs could be hard to stop.

Will the coaches turn the defensive dawgs loose? Peyton Manning has the tools to dissect any defense apart if given enough time. Last week’s more aggressive blitzing scheme held Jacksonville to 54 net passing yards and 2-for-11 in third-down conversions. Peyton is a deft ball handler, but he’s prone to fumbles and turnovers when pressed. Corey Fuller feels the fire, so trust him to blanket Marvin Harrison by himself if that’s what it takes to send a surprise safety into the backfield once in a while.

Can the Browns handle big-game pressure with fundamentals, or will they just go mental? They made the Big Easy look easy, then fouled their own nest against Carolina. It comes down to the character of the players and the competence of the coaching staff. Has Butch Davis prepared this team to handle success? We’ll measure this in penalties, turnovers, and third-down conversions. The Browns can punish their opponents in many different ways, but their losses this season are mainly a function of their own short-sighted game planning and mental mistakes. Everyone — players and coaches — will need to be loose enough to adjust tactics that might best muster mettle from this mercurial team.