To get a handle on the Browns’ roster overhaul, I tried to pair each departing player with a new arrival at the same positional group. Then I projected whether each matched set represents an upgrade (+), downgrade (-), or too much uncertainty (?). It was an imperfect process, as we acquired a running back and punter without sending any incumbents packing, at least yet. And the switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4 puts the defense in special flux. Also, important salary and contract implications are not addressed here; just on-the-field potential.

QB (key returnees: Harris)
Jeff Garcia Trent Dilfer (+)
Kelly Holcomb Charlie Frye (long-term +)
Luke McCown Lang Campbell (-)

OL (key returnees: Faine, Tucker, Fowler, DeMar, Chambers)
Ross Verba (imminent) LJ Shelton (?)
Damion Cook Joe Andruzzi (+)
Joaquin Gonzalez Jon Dunn (?)
Paul Zukauskas Marcus Spears (+)
Kelvin Garmon Cosey Coleman (+)

WR (key returnees: Davis, Bryant, Northcutt)
Andre King Braylon Edwards (++)

RB (key returnees: Suggs, Green)
Adimchinobe Echemandu (projected) Reuben Droughns (+)

DL (key returnees: Roye, McKinley, Eason)
Gerard Warren Jason Fisk (?)
Courtney Brown Simon Fraser (?)
Michael Myers Andrew Hoffman (?)
Ebenezer Ekuban J’Vonne Parker (?)
Tyrone Rogers Ellery Moore (?)

LB (key returnees: Davis, Thompson, Lang, Taylor, Boyer, Unck)
Warrick Holdman Matt Stewart (+)
Kevin Bentley David McMillan (?)
Barry Gardner Nick Speegle (?)
Eric Westmoreland Justin Kurpeikis (?)

DB (key returnees: McCutcheon, Jones, Crocker, Bodden, Lehan, Jameson)
Anthony Henry Gary Baxter (?)
Robert Griffith Brodney Pool (long-term +)
Earl Little Bryan Russell (+)
Lewis Sanders Antonio Perkins (+)

P
Derrick Frost (projected) Kyle Richardson (+)

Observations:

Lots of question marks mean that a tremendous amount depends on the ability of the coaching staff to work fast and hard installing schemes, evaluating players, developing units, and generally fostering a cohesive squad.

The biggest wild-card — injuries — will surely take some type of toll, even with the expected return of players such as Sean Jones, Brant Boyer, and Ryan Tucker.

The lack of an experienced back-up quarterback presents a great opportunity for Josh Harris to step up and prove that he deserves to play in this league. It’s also a calculated risk that Dilfer will stay healthy, and if not, that either Frye or Harris can hold down the fort short-term, and if not, that a decent field-ready fill-in (Jeff Blake, Doug Johnson?) can be signed in a hurry. I’m not sure what function buttons you press to make that kind of calculation.

If Dilfer stays healthy, I’m really excited about the offense given the upgraded line and deep units at RB and WR. Even without Wheelie, it could be a very, very productive and balanced attack.

I have no godly idea how good the front seven will be. On the line, there are only three experienced players, and nearly every one of the linebackers will be adjusting to new responsibilities in the 3-4 system. One the biggest curiosities of training camp will be to see which of the young players seem ready to contribute soonest. Can Hoffman hold down the nose in rotation with Fisk? Who among the LBs will provide the best combination of pass rushing, run stuffing, and coverage of backs and TEs?

The secondary, despite losing most of its starters, still seems a step better than last year. Maybe not right away, but I think this unit will be adequate-to-good in ’05 and outstanding in ’06 and beyond.

In summary, I’m very impressed with the energy and focus that Phil Savage has brought to the job in his first few months. Most of the players I didn’t like are now gone. The salary cap seems to be in good shape in both the near and long term. There’s a nice mix of high-character veterans and intriguing pups. The turnover has been huge, but the off-season participation has reportedly been excellent. It’s a team on the rise, no doubt, just a question of how fast and how far.

Of course, almost every team seems improved this time of the year. Overstocked rosters, post-draft optimism, injuries healing. This year’s Browns won’t be competing against last year’s version. They will face a strong division and some challenging road games (i.e. at Green Bay and Indy in Weeks 2 and 3). I think every NFL team’s yearly goal should be at least to make the playoffs. While keeping that in mind, I’d be delighted if this year’s Browns managed to finish 8-8. PHD went 7-9 his first year, so that’s a worthy bar to clear.