Before we delve into the fuller dimensions of today’s costly loss to Washington, I again need to take Romeo to task for his game management.
Let’s look at just one decision: trying for a game-tying 54-yard field goal on 4th-and-10 with 32 seconds to go.
What choice did he have? Go for it, obviously.
The chance that Dawson makes that kick are pretty low. Granted, he was 7-for-10 career from 50+ yards, but the longest of those was just 52 yards, that coming five years ago. Let’s put the probability of him making that kick on FedEx field at 18%.
Compare that to the probability of converting the fourth down and then making a much shorter kick. I’d say the Browns could gain the ten yards three times out of ten, 30%. Then, Dawson could tie the game with a kick of up to 44 yards, which is about a 70% shot. So, the combination of those two necessities (.3 x .7) would occur 21% of the time.
That’s why going for it was a better bet.
Of course, my estimates are just that, mine. You may rate the odds differently and thus defend the call. That’s OK. But going for it also carried a non-zero chance of actually winning in regulation, so at least I’ve got that going for me.
Not that it’s the worst decision of Romeo’s career. Or even of that game. And it’s not the main reason they lost, not by a long shot.
Just thought I’d get it on the record that trying to do something that’s never been done before was not the only way the Browns could have expressed their desperation and ended this embarrassment.