Four days from now, the new league year begins, and that means players with expired contracts are free agents. Amid the off-season tumult of 2014, the Browns — for a variety of reasons — failed to secure the services of some key contributors heading into their contract year. So now we have a lengthy list of players headed elsewhere and an owner saying out loud they’ll be “playing less in free agency” despite ranking near the top in available salary cap space.
As I’ve done in years past, I’m summarizing the key off-season turnover in terms of who’s replacing whom. I’ll keep this chart updated over the course of the next few months’ free agent signings, trades, and draft picks. It should provide a convenient way to judge whether Ray Farmer and crew have really upgraded the roster. It looks like quite an uphill task.
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- take the value of player contributions from previous year
- add value of players returning from injury
- add projected value of incoming players via FA, trade & draft
- add the net effect of returnees’ skill development
- subtract value of players departing for any reason
- subtract for probability of player injury
- adjust for degree of continuity and alignment with organization, coaching schemes, and roster
- compare the result to step 1.
