Two days ahead of the draft, and I’m still sticking with the opinion I painstakingly formulated last month. In a nutshell:
- Calvin Johnson is the most talented and lowest risk player on the board. Though wide receiver is not close to the Browns’ highest position of need, I’m confident Johnson could be one of those proverbial difference-makers, and he could do it soon.
- Adrian Peterson offers nearly the same explosive offensive potential, just at higher risk. But running back is a position of much greater need, and there’s no reason to think he couldn’t be a major factor on Opening Day.
- The two quarterbacks have vastly different styles, and both probably have more upside than the Browns’ incumbents. If you’re going to invest some $30 million in guaranteed money in one player, it makes sense to do it at the game’s most critical position. But I’m not happy about the prospect of waiting years to see what level of peak performance either Quinn or Russell might attain. And I think it’s about six months too early to give up on the idea of Charlie Frye becoming a top-20 level quarterback. Picking either QB would be such a concession.
- As for Joe Thomas, he’ll be a solid player and a probable rookie starter at left tackle. The Browns do need more help on the line. But I’m just not sure he’s worth this high of a pick. I don’t buy the argument that says you’ll be set at that position for ten years. Life carries no such guarantees, and football is even riskier. The contract surely won’t be that long. I’m not prepared to forsake a premiere game-changing player today on the theory of anchoring left tackle through 2016.
- Given the Browns’ multiple positional needs, trading down to acquire at least one more first-day pick — and lower the guaranteed money demands for their first-rounder — is appealing. But getting some instant offense is even moreso.
So here’s what I hope happens, in order of preference:
- Trade down (most likely if Johnson is still on the board) and still snag Peterson.
- Draft Johnson.
- Draft Peterson.
- Trade down and draft Thomas.
- Trade down and draft Quinn.
- Trade down and draft Russell.
Assuming the trade nets an extra third-rounder at very least, any of those scenarios would be an excellent use of the third overall pick.
But the other picks are also crucial, so here’s the overall goals the Browns should set out to achieve this weekend:
- Draft at least one guard or tackle who could step in as a starter early on.
- Draft the cornerback least likely to be a liability as a rookie.
- Draft a potential “feature” running back.
- Invest in a quarterback with the tools to develop into at least a solid starter, but only if available at the right value.
- Bolster the defensive line, especially at end.
- For the second-day picks, there really is no position to avoid except tight end, but talent on the lines — and at punt returner and safety — merits extra consideration on the draft board.
