POSITIONAL ANALYSIS: QUARTERBACKS

This is the first of a series of posts evaluating each position group of Browns players. The series will focus on recent history, current status, and prospects for the future.

PAST: Chronic controversy at the QB position has been cited as a major reason for the team’s regression. What many saw one year ago as an embarrassment of riches — a blue-chipper finally racking up wins (Tim Couch), along with a veteran gunslinger with the hot hand (Kelly Holcomb) — became an open competition.

Couch came into camp in the best shape ever, ready to display mastery of the Bruce Arians offense and shake off the inconsistency that had cost him the loyalty of many Browns fans. Holcomb was hungry for his first starting gig, and he narrowly outperformed Couch during the pre-season evaluation period. Trying to soothe egos by avoiding specifics, Head Coach Butch Davis cited a “gut feeling” in naming Holcomb the starter. Behind that conceit, he actually had sound bases for the decision.

For a lifelong star like Couch, who just a year previous had been signed to a hefty contract extension, the demotion was a shock he was ill-equipped to handle. It appeared he would ride the pine for $6.2 million this year, then get cut and latch on elsewhere for a much-needed fresh start. While he said the right things publicly, he did not instantly become the ideal team guy one hopes for in a backup: engaged, supportive, and prepared.

So began the season-long see-saw. Holcomb faltered early. Then, in danger of falling to 0-3, he led a gutsy comeback in San Francisco, throwing for two late TDs on a broken leg and sprained ankle that he had no business playing on. Davis minimized the damage (after all, just days before, he had cut the third-stringer, Josh Booty, as unneeded), but Holcomb missed the next three games and his mobility, never great to begin with, was a liability the rest of the year.

With a fresh opportunity, Couch started strong, playing well in a loss to the Bengals, then having his best day as a pro in dismantling the Steelers. The Browns followed with a win over the Raiders. But ultimately, Couch failed to seize the starter’s job, as inconsistency re-emerged. He started the next two games but was ineffective. A hobbled Holcomb tried in vain to muster comebacks in relief each time.

After the bye week, Holcomb returned as the starter. Aside from a great game against the Cardinals, this team was in a death spiral, and Holcomb was part of it. In Seattle, Holcomb was benched mid-game, but Couch did not appear prepared and was soon injured. It was the first time that Davis appeared to lose confidence in Holcomb, yet #10 was thrust back into action in a dreadful rout.

The next week’s Monday Night game sealed the deal. With three turnovers in the first half, Holcomb was yanked on prime time. He never saw the field again. Couch mounted an inspired, though insufficient, comback against the Rams. He also played well in two of the last three games, finishing with a heartening win over the Bengals.

Each QB started eight games and appeared in ten. Holcomb threw more often, but Couch had a slight edge in productivity, registering the highest QB rating of his five-year career.

PRESENT: Holcomb had long-standing ties to offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who was fired at season’s end. While he showed courage this season, he also made critical mistakes and never seemed to pick apart zone defenses as well as he did against man-to-man. The conventional wisdom is that this season proved that Holcomb may be a solid backup, but opponents can neutralize him with effective defensive game plans. He is under contract for next year for a very manageable $1 million.

Couch has recently changed his tune and now speaks encouragingly about staying in Cleveland. Davis, too, has been more positive about Couch and seems to recognize his limitations as something that can be managed. Still, Couch has not proven worthy of his high-flying salary. He’s scheduled to earn $7.6 million in 2004 and $8 million in 2005.

The third QB is Nate Hybl, a rookie free agent who has shown no signs of being game-ready.

FUTURE: Step 1: Renegotiate Couch’s contract. This seems to be a no-brainer, but it’s actually quite dicey. Remember that these deals usually involve an up-front signing bonus whose salary cap hit is pro-rated over the length of the contract. That means a third big windfall for a player who has yet to achieve his promise. It also means a further commitment to Couch, because cutting him, say, a year down the road would accelerate the cap hit.

Couch can say that he’ll do anything it takes to help the team, but, in actuality, why should he make any financial sacrifice at all to the team and the coach that demoted him (even if that demotion turned out to be a good character-builder)? The deuce up Couch’s sleeve is those two years on his current contract. If he doesn’t get favorable terms reworking his deal, he’ll basically force the Browns to cut him, because he’s just not worth $7.6 million for next year. Then he’d be free to let other teams bid up his services.

Either way, Couch is going to end up with a big bonus for all he went through this year. And it’s probably the Browns who will pay it. Again. The offensive coaches will take special pains to avoid stressing out Couch. He’s not the brightest bulb in the chandelier, but he’s tough, fairly accurate, and a good game manager. Just don’t expect him to make multiple reads or beat the blitz every time.

Step 2: As for Holcomb, it would be great if the team could keep him for one more affordable year of backup service. But I just don’t think that’s in the cards. Couch hopes it’s not in the cards. They say they’re friends, but there’s too much history already. Can’t risk another see-saw season. While trades are a dying art in today’s NFL, that seems like the most logical strategy for the Browns here. Holcomb has value and an affordable contract. In exchange, I hope we can get one of the following: a third-round draft pick, an experienced guard or tackle, or a similarly skilled backup QB.

Step 3: Ensure quality depth. If Couch stays and Holcomb goes, we must obtain another QB who could actually help the team win in 2004 if need be. Anthony Wright and Billy Volek are two free agent names that come to mind. Bigger names like Mark Brunell, Jeff Garcia, and Kurt Warner are improbable for this role. Neither Hybl or a rookie draftee will suffice as the #2 guy (behind #2, that is). That’s why it would be great if Holcomb could stay, but the personal dynamics appear to prohibit it.

As for a developmental, long-term pick, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Browns draft someone like Bowling Green’s Josh Harris (son of former Bengal LB M.L. Harris), an Ohioan already accustomed to the orange and brown. Physically, he’s the modern prototype QB: big and mobile. Who’s the last Browns QB who could run? And if he gets forced into action prematurely, he might be able to make things happen earlier in his career than a pure pocket passer would. If he lasts into the fourth round, get him.

Next up: the running backs.