Stats support “Lockdown on the Lake” hype

I won’t be sticking my neck out predicting the Browns’ 2015 fate with any specificity. Given the outsize randomizing impact of injuries, it’s a fool’s errand anyway.

But one thing I expect is that they will be tough to throw on. Why?

  • Their four starters in the secondary are all Pro Bowlers
  • The defensive scheme is entering its second year, which is what counts as continuity in Cleveland
  • The defensive line will generate more of a pass rush than last year’s injury-wracked unit
  • The crew of linebackers includes several who are quite capable in coverage, particularly Karlos Dansby, but also Chris Kirksey and Barkevious Mingo
  • The depth at cornerback (assuming the training camp injuries don’t linger) is better than I can ever remember. After Joe Haden and Tramon Williams, emerging players like K’Waun Williams, Pierre Desir, and Charles Gaines show promise. When the eighth overall pick in the draft a year ago is no better than your fifth corner, the position is a decided strength.

According to this post from the insightful Football Perspective, the Browns ranked third best in the league last year in something called “Relative Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt,” behind only Buffalo and Denver. Longtime Browns followers know that the expansion era teams have generally ranked pretty well in most gross pass defense stats, but that’s partly due to how easy a time opponents have had running the ball, and how seldom they’ve needed to mount comebacks. But RANY/A is a more meaningful and sophisticated metric, particularly due to the “per attempt” factor.

Last year’s Browns pass defense was not only strong compared to other teams around the league, it was also the team’s best performance by this measure since at least 2002. And whereas their trend is favorable, it’s quite the opposite for the Ravens and, most remarkably, the Steelers, who ranked 30th last year in defensive RANY/A after finishing no worse than second for seven straight years in the previous decade.

So while I’m not optimistic about the Browns’ prospects at the offensive skill positions, I am looking forward to seeing them shut down receivers and give opposing QBs headaches. If they succeed in improving their run defense to any appreciable degree, it could be a special defensive squad to behold.

Ball-hawking safety Tashaun Gipson is back from injury for his contract year. (Kuntz/NEOMG photo)