The Browns clearly need and will draft a quarterback (or two). But it ain’t easy to figure who’s the best of this bunch, or how good or bad any of them will be. It sets up a dilemma in which using the fourth-overall pick on a QB is very risky (compared with, say, one of the top offensive tackles); however, waiting until 26 or the later rounds assures that they’ll be left with leftovers — not a solid strategy for finding a franchise player at the the sport’s most critical position.

Lets look back at previous drafts to see how often the first quarterback selected turned out to have the best NFL career of that draft class.

• 2013: First QB drafted: E.J.  Manuel (BUF), 16th overall. Most productive: Mike Glennon (TAM), 73rd. We’re only one year into this class, and Manuel was hurt, so it’s too early to say whether he, Glennon, or Geno Smith will emerge as the best of this draft class.
• 2012: First QB drafted: Andrew Luck (IND), 1st overall. Most productive: Luck. It was a strong year for QB with Robert Griffin (2nd), Russell Wilson (75th), Nick Foles (88th), and Ryan Tannehill (8th) also making their marks, but Luck has validated his premiere position.
• 2011: First QB drafted: Cam Newton (CAR), 1st overall. Most productive: Newton. But it’s noteworthy that Andy Dalton (35th) and Colin Kaepernick (36th) have had more individual and team success than the other first-rounders, Jake Locker (8th), Blaine Gabbert (10th), and Christian Ponder (12th).
• 2010: First QB drafted: Sam Bradford (STL), 1st overall. Most productive: Bradford. Not that the Rams have much to show for it, but Bradford deserved to headline what proved an awful QB class, including Tim Tebow (25th), Jimmy Clausen (48th), and Colt McCoy (85th).
• 2009: First QB drafted: Matthew Stafford (DET), 1st overall. Again, no Pro Bowls or playoff berths, but the top pick was clearly the best of the bunch, over Mark Sanchez (5th), Josh Freeman (17th), and Pat White (44th) 
• 2008: First QB drafted: Matt Ryan (ATL) 3rd overall. Most productive: Ryan, though Joe Flacco (18th) does have a ring. Chad Henne (57th) is the only other player of note.
• 2007: First QB drafted: JaMarcus Russell (OAK), 1st overall. Most productive: Trent Edwards (92nd). The sixth QB taken, Edwards barely outperformed Kevin Kolb (36th). Though already out of the league, he has the edge on Brady Quinn (22nd), John Beck (40th), and Drew Stanton (43rd).
• 2006: First QB drafted: Vince Young (TEN), 3rd overall. Most productive: Jay Cutler (11th) is the clear cream of this crop, despite being the third QB taken, behind Young and Matt Leinart (10th).
• 2005: First QB drafted: Alex Smith (SF), 1st overall. Most productive: Aaron Rodgers (24th). This was the rare draft that also yielded several starters even in the late rounds, including Jason Campbell (25th), Matt Cassel (230th), Ryan Fitzpatrick (250th), Kyle Orton (106th), and Derek Anderson (213th). Not to mention Charlie Frye (67th).
• 2004: First QB drafted: Eli Manning (SD->NYG), 1st overall. Most productive: Take your pick between the top three draftees, Manning, Philip Rivers (4th), and Ben Roethlisberger (11th) in a top-heavy class that also included Matt Schaub (90th).
• 2003: First QB drafted: Carson Palmer (CIN), 1st overall. Most productive: Palmer.
• 2002: First QB drafted: David Carr (HOU), 1st overall. Most productive: David Garrard (108th). The three first-rounders, Carr, Joey Harrington (3rd), and Patrick Ramsey (32rd) were all disappointments.
• 2001: First QB drafted: Michael Vick (ATL), 1st overall. Most productive: Drew Brees (32nd).
• 2000: First QB drafted: Chad Pennington (NYJ), 18th overall. Most productive: Tom Brady (199th).
• 1999: First QB drafted: Tim Couch (CLE), 1st overall. Most productive: Donovan McNabb (2nd). QBs were taken 1-2-3, with two others in the top 12. Only McNabb, Daunte Culpepper (11th), and Aaron Brooks (131st) ultimately vindicated their draft position.

So only about half the time did the top-drafted QB turn out to have the best NFL career.

But if the Browns wait until 26, they may very well end up taking the fourth or fifth QB off the board. Only three times in the last 15 years (Edwards, Garrard, Brady) was the best quarterback chosen after at least three others were taken, and they were all later-round finds.

This year’s draft is shaping up as pretty deep, with no clear-cut elite QBs. If the Browns have their eye on a particular guy, there’s no sense in waiting, because several teams are eager to upgrade the position. It seems that Teddy Bridgewater may be the lowest-risk, most game-ready option for 2014 and beyond.

But if they’re not truly sold on anyone, and they see a pool of possibilities to work with, it might make sense to sit back and see who falls their way. Is that approach aggressive enough to solve this long-standing positional deficit? In hoping to outsmart 31 other teams, you might just outsmart yourself.

Fact is, the Browns’ QBs are now just Brian Hoyer, an undrafted journeyman with certain promising qualities coming off ACL surgery, and Alex Tanney, a small-school project who has yet to show anything as a pro. They need two more guys, one of whom must be a plausible fill-in for Hoyer, lest the 2014 season carry unacceptably high risk of sudden catastrophe. I don’t think a Jimmy Garoppolo and Rex Grossman rookie/vet combo will do the trick.